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Coping with Complex Environmental and Societal Flood Risk Management Decisions : An Integrated Multi-criteria Framework

机译:应对复杂的环境和社会洪水风险管理决策:综合多准则框架

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摘要

During recent years, a great deal of attention has been focused on the financial risk management of natural disasters. One reason behind is that the economic losses from floods, windstorms, earthquakes and other disasters in both the developing and developed countries are escalating dramatically. It has become apparent that an integrated water resource management approach would be beneficial in order to take both the best interests of society and of the environment into consideration. One improvement consists of models capable of handling multiple criteria (conflicting objectives) as well as multiple stakeholders (conflicting interests). A systems approach is applied for coping with complex environmental and societal risk management decisions with respect to flood catastrophe policy formation, wherein the emphasis is on computer-based modeling and simulation techniques combined with methods for evaluating strategies where numerous stakeholders are incorporated in the process. The resulting framework consists of a simulation model, a decision analytical tool, and a set of suggested policy strategies for policy formulation. The framework will aid decision makers with high risk complex environmental decisions subject to significant uncertainties.
机译:近年来,自然灾害的财务风险管理引起了极大的关注。其背后的原因之一是,发展中国家和发达国家的洪灾,暴风雨,地震和其他灾害造成的经济损失正在急剧上升。显而易见的是,综合水资源管理方法将有益于兼顾社会和环境的最大利益。一种改进是由能够处理多个标准(目标冲突)以及多个利益相关方(利益冲突)的模型组成。应用系统方法来应对有关洪水巨灾政策形成的复杂的环境和社会风险管理决策,其中重点是基于计算机的建模和仿真技术,以及用于评估策略的方法,其中将众多利益相关者纳入流程中。最终的框架包括一个仿真模型,一个决策分析工具以及一套用于制定政策的建议政策策略。该框架将帮助决策者在面临重大不确定性的情况下做出高风险,复杂的环境决策。

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